Champions League Best Bets: Winner market and Golden Boot selections
The most prestigous competition in club football is ready to kick off on Tuesday, but who have our football experts claimed as their champions and Golden Boot winner?
Spanish sides still hold the aces
Champions League games at 5.55pm: now that's the kind of development an indolent freelance writer can really get behind. Whatever happens in this season's competition, it's already going down as a massive success on the sitting-on-the-sofa front. And isn't that the real quiz?
Trophy hoarders Real Madrid are seemingly weakened; Juventus are newly Ronaldified; Barcelona are keen to make up for recent continental failings; and Paris Saint-Germainare desperate to finally claim a seat at the winners' enclosure. With Manchester City, Liverpool and Bayern Munich also in the running, it's a wide open field.
That being the case, there could be value in backing Atlético Madrid at 14.50. Diego Simeone's side are already slightly off the pace in La Liga, so could soon turn their attentions to Europe, which could be bad news for whoever they face after negotiating a winnable group.
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Lionel Messi is favourite to be top scorer this season at 4/1. But the smart pick could be Neymar, who scored six times in seven appearances before his injury last term and will be central to PSG's hopes again. The Brazilian can be backed at 14/1 on the Sportsbook.
Another name also jumps out: Karim Benzema, at 25/1. The 30-year-old has 56 Champions League goals to his name and appears to have a new lease of life under Julen Lopetegui. If Madrid recover from their fraught summer to go deep in the competition again, he is likely to play a crucial role.
Liverpool can go one better
They made the final last year, they're full of goals, they have fresh blood in key positions (with Alisson perhaps being the most important of the lot in what was their achilles' heel - between the sticks). They have a manager who understands his players and has them buying into what he's trying to do. And they also have in Mohammad Salah the player who has arguably been the best on the planet over the past 12 months.
In other words, there's loads to like about Liverpool, including their price - 12.50 on the Exchange - which went out a bit after they were given what looked like a tough group.
But I'm confident they can get through. PSG rarely beat Europe's elite away from home while Neymar is both their best asset and their worst. Napoli are decent, especially upfront, and Carlo Ancelotti's no nonsense style will suit but the difference in quality throughout the two squads is notable.
Liverpool really should go through and once they've done that their big European night-atmosphere at Anfield and experience of last year should count in their favour. There's no reason why they can't go one better.
It's normally in the Group Stages that you get most of the goals that allow you to be the tournament's top scorer. And of the favourites, it's perhaps Bayern Munich who have the easiest of groups - Ajax, Benfica, AEK Athens - and therefore perhaps the potential to sore more goals than anyone else during the initial stage.
Which of course brings Robert Lewandowski into the equation.
The Pole will want to make up for a poor World Cup and with a semi-final appearance somewhat likely, he'll have enough games to add to his tally from the group stages. He's started the season in style, and I just can't understand why he's as big as 12/1 to be top scorer.
Third time lucky for Atletico
Spanish clubs have claimed 10/18 (56%) Champions League titles this century and accounted for 15/36 (42%) of finalists in the same sample so it makes sense to focus our attention on La Liga's elite.
With three-peat champions Real Madrid losing leading light Cristiano Ronaldo and head coach Zinedine Zidane this summer, Los Blancos may endure a slight downturn in 2018/19. And while Barcelona appear to have strengthened their squad with a tilt at the continental crown in mind, doubts linger over Ernesto Valverde's tactical acumen to guide the Catalans to glory.
Therefore, Atletico Madrid are well worth an outright poke at 14.50. Diego Simeone's side have made a laboured start to the new season but have reached the semi-finals in three of the past five Champions League renewals, twice losing out in the showpiece final, and are more than capable of a repeat.
The Spaniards have managed to keep hold of star striker Antoine Griezmann, boast Diego Costa in their armoury for the full season and managed to capture Thomas Lemar and Gelson Martins in the summer, while their defensive organisation and excellence make the capital club strong across the board.
Los Colchoneros are a horribly awkward and gnarly team to face over two legs and will enjoy the relative luxury of avoiding playing a fellow La Liga side until at least the quarter-finals. What's more, the Wanda Metropolitano will host June's decider, providing Atletico with even more motivation to go the whole hog.
Real can't do it again...can they?!
Another thrilling Champions League campaign is about to begin in earnest, and once again we are looking at Real Madrid and thinking "they can't do it again, surely, can they?"
The Winner market on the Exchange currently has them trading at 11.00 to secure a fourth straight Champions League trophy, and you can certainly make a case for them lifting that big old pot at the home of their old rivals Atletico on June 1.
Yes, Zinedine Zidane left the building with one of football's greatest ever mic drops, and the legendary Cristiano Ronaldo has also taken his stardust away, but Real still have an outstanding set of players. They have two of the world's top keepers, a World Cup-winning centre back, an absurdly talented first-choice midfield and rising stars like Marco Asensioand Dani Ceballos. Gareth Bale finally has the limelight, and if he stays fit, he should relish it.
Elsewhere I like the look of backing Ajax at 15/8 to qualify for the last 16. Ajax reached the Europa League final a couple of seasons ago, and they looked really sharp in their playoff win over Dynamo Kiev. Bayern are likely to win the group handily, but AEK Athens lack experience at this level, and Benfica are suffering from the consistent sale of their best players.
I'd also be tempted to back Valencia to qualify from Group H at 13/10. Coach Marcelino finally brought stability to the club last season, and although they have made a sticky start to this campaign, they have lots of talented players. The permanent acquisition of Portuguese forward Goncalo Guedes from PSG after a successful loan spell was excellent business, and Valencia are capable of upsetting a Manchester United side that failed to impress in this competition last term.
If you're looking for an outside bet for Top Goalscorer, Sadio Mane is worth considering at 33/1. The supercharged Senegalese forward has made a superb start to the campaign in front of goal, and if Liverpool have another deep run in the competition, he's likely to play a big role in an attack that can puncture any defensive line.
Ronaldo may be gone but Madrid are still the Real thing
Last season the Champions League caught fire in the knockout stage, producing some sensational ties and outrageous goals.
This time around the tournament looks very open and the prospects of another highly entertaining spring look good.
For the first time in a long time, an English side - Manchester City - start as favourites, at 5.80 on the but both they and the side directly behind them in the market, Barcelona, suffered horrendous collapses in last season's quarter-finals. It has certainly left scar tissue among some of their backers and may well have done with some of their players too.
For me, the team that stands out are the three-time defending champions, Real Madrid.
Yes, I understand the reason why their odds are longer this season (Cristiano Ronaldo).
Yet this is a team which remains blessed with talent and it also has an impressive new manager to freshen them up. Julen Lopetegui has returned Gareth Bale to the starting XI and if he can get Isco and rising star Marco Asensio in the same team as Bale and Karim Benzema, then there is still a huge amount for opposing defences to fear.
Luka Modric was the World Cup's star man, further back Sergio Ramos remains one of the game's best defenders and in goal they have arguably upgraded by signing Thibaut Courtois.
For me, the markets have placed too much emphasis on Ronaldo's departure and double-figure quotes on the exchange should be snapped up.
As for the top goalscorer market, I'll stick with Real where the aforementioned Benzema has to be considered.
Ronaldo has won the last six Golden Boots, reaching double figures on each occasion. Someone will profit from his absence and the central striker could be that man.
Early-season stats show he already has with Benzema having netted five times in four games. The Frenchman took 13 per cent of his team's shots when Ronaldo was in the side. So far this term that figure is up above 26.
Real have Plzen and CSKA Moscow, a team Manchester United put six past in two games last season, in their group and so Benzema looks to have every chance of forging a lead in the race.
In short, 25/1 is too big.
Atletico have the luck of the draw
Atletico Madrid have made a slightly sluggish start to their La Liga campaign but they have a favourable draw in this competition, have strengthened well over the summer and will be looking to atone for last year's poor performance in the Champions League - although they did atone for that by winning the Europa!
Group A consists of Borussia Dortmund, Monaco and Club Brugge. The first two of those clubs aren't anywhere near as strong as they were two or three years ago, and the Belgians lost all six games when they were last in the group stage in 2016.
Once you get through to the knockout rounds anything can happen, but one thing we do know is that Diego Simeone's side are a gritty opponent who are incredibly tough to beat.
I am also of the belief that Simeone has stayed at Atletico for this long as he is desperate to get his hands on the only major trophy he hasn't yet won with Los Colchoneros, and his near misses in 2014 and 2016 will have only spurred him on more. Back Atletico on the Betfair Exchange at 14.50.
For individual honours it's hard to look past Robert Lewandowski for the Golden Boot at 12/1 on the Betfair Sportsbook.
Of all the big guns in the competition this year, I would say that Bayern Munich and Manchester City have the easiest groups. They could both rack up plenty of goalsduring their first six games, so that makes Lewandowski and Sergio Aguero obvious candidates.
The pair of them have started the domestic campaign in good fashion, but with more concern over Aguero's injury record and possible rotation, I think the Pole is the man to be on here.
For an alternative, don't rule out Gareth Bale for Real Madrid. He isn't sharing the limelight with Ronaldo anymore and has been on fire this season. He is also 12/1.