Milan - Ludogorets - Tips by users and experts on football, 22 February 2018: UEFA Europa League

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Over 3 Goals • 2.28

Hopefuly you remember last week battle, AC Milan have racked up a commanding lead in their Europa League first knockout round tie. They won 3-0 away to Ludogorets last week, which has them in a dominant position in this tie. However, their circumstances have changed slightly since that win. No longer are Milan solely focused on the Europa League – as their main league ambition going in to the weekend was to claim a place in this competition next season. However, a 1-0 win over Sampdoria has put them in the Champions League frame.

Making their way back to Europe’s premier competition is exactly what the new Milan owners need, after their busy summer transfer window. It seemed like they’d need to win the Europa League in order to do that, but the awful form from Vincenzo Montella’s reign has cleared up under Gennaro Gattuso, who has seen some big improvements from his team in the new year.

That’s affected this game in two ways. First of all, as a squad Milan seem much tighter at the back. They haven’t just benefited from some big displays defensively, they’re a side who know how to play as a unit. It’s not a breath-taking style of football, but it’s certainly a start. Secondly, Serie A will be Milan’s priority, as long as there’s a top four place within reach for them. While they started putting all their eggs in to the Europa League’s basket, they’re going to be quickly back tracking on that. As a result, expect to see some changes here. Gattuso has been routinely switching up the attack, and that’s likely to happen once again.

While Milan can afford to make changes given their first leg lead, their attack may not cope. The hosts have seen their fair share of low scoring games, with 67% of their Serie A matches this term finishing with under 2.5 goals scored. We expect a similarly quiet game in the Europa League this week, given that the Rossoneri are through to the last 16 with a clean sheet. Even a 1-0 loss would be enough for the hosts, so we don’t see their much changed front line being that desperate to pour forward.

Meanwhile, the visitors have seen under 2.5 goals scored in every single one of their away trips in the Europa League this term. That run makes us think that we’re in for a quiet game here, so I backing a low scoring game and a 1-0 win for the hosts. Under 2.5 goals is my main tip, given that neither of these two are set up to risk their defence and to go all out on the attack.