Stuttgart - Wolfsburg - Tips by users and experts on football, 11 May 2019: Germany. Bundesliga

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Stuttgart Win • 3.25

Wolfsburg have often struggled to create more than their opponents when playing away from home. Saturday’s visitors did win their most recent away match, as they beat Hoffenheim by four goals to one, while they’ve also scored more goals than they’ve conceded overall on the road this season. However, if we look at the underlying numbers, it’s easy to see that Die Wölfe have often given more away than they’ve created. They average 1.36 expected goals for on the road and have conceded an average of 1.75.

At the end of the day, as the side challenging at the right end of the table, Wolfsburg deserve to be favourites, though if we compare their overall away-day efforts with Stuttgart’s efforts at home, we can conclude that they’re too short in the betting. Reversely, the hosts look a tad overpriced.

Stuttgart haven’t been great at the back when playing at home, though their average of 1.5 expected-goals against at home is better than Wolfsburg’s average of 1.75 expected-goals against on the road. All in all, Stuttgart look to have a slightly better chance of getting a positive result than the current odds suggest, so a small punt on ‘Stuttgart Draw No Bet’ offers punters some value.