West Bromwich Albion - Aston Villa - Tips by users and experts on football, 14 May 2019: England. Championship

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Aston Villa Win • 2.57

With 16 minutes to go at Villa Park on Saturday, West Brom were coasting towards a huge victory. However, a dramatic last 15 minutes has left them as rank outsiders in this tie. They need to turn around a 2-1 defeat in the first leg, while they have to do it without forward Dwight Gayle after his red card. It was an impressive result for Villa, who made a switch in approach to get themselves in pole position to reach Wembley. Will they book a place in the playoff final for the second season running?

West Brom went under the radar in their Championship campaign, while they nearly pulled off a major shock against a Villa side who have been widely tipped to go up. Now the Baggies are left with a huge challenge at the Hawthorns on Tuesday night. Their record in front of goal at home this term suggests they have the firepower to turn it around, but the absence of Gayle is a blow to that. Jay Rodriguez is the only striker West Brom can call upon here, while they have major defensive issues troubling them.

Draw • 3.48

Despite the score seeing Aston Villa just one goal ahead, it feels like West Brom have a mountain to climb if they are to reach Wembley.

A defensive display wasn't enough to secure victory at Villa Park, even after taking the lead, and matters were made worse when Dwight Gayle was shown a second yellow card in the closing minutes.

He'll miss this game and the final should they make it. Against a team of Villa's quality, the Baggies have given themselves a mountain to climb.

West Brom boss James Shan is remaining confident though and has backed Jay Rodriguez to step up in a more central role. He usually partners Gayle up front, and came close to scoring after hitting the bar on Saturday.

Draw • 3.48

Matt Phillips should get another start here after fully recovering from injury and the 6/1 available on him having two or more shots on target is a bet worth considering.

He carries an attacking threat anyway, but this game should see more opportunities on goal, particularly if they are chasing the game late on.

Phillips has posted two or more shots on multiple occasions this season and I'd back him to do the same here. It's a general price of 4/1 on a goal anytime, but the stats markets provide that extra value.

Score prediction: West Brom 1-1 Aston Villa

West Bromwich Albion Win • 2.86

The visitors can be confident of edging the tie. 16 of the last 18 sides to win the first leg of a Championship play-off semi-final have gone on to progress through to the final, with the only exceptions being Derby County last season (vs Fulham) and Leicester City in 2012/13 (vs Watford). Meanwhile, West Brom are going to really miss Gayle. The Baggies have just a 33% win rate without Gayle in all competitions this season (four wins from 12 games), compared to a 54% win rate with him in the side (22 wins from 41 games).

We expect West Brom to still have a presence in attack – they scored in 96% of their home league games this season – but their big game record could let them down. The Baggies beat one of the top seven here last season, shipping 12 goals in that time. Meanwhile, Villa’s only defeats away to the top 10 came at the top two. The visitors scored in all of those clashes, finding the net in 89% of their league games. With that in mind, we think both teams to score is great value, as it landed in 83% of West Brom’s home outings. We also see the Baggies’ home woes going against them, as we’re backing another Villa win.

West Bromwich Albion Win • 2.86

The only previous occasion of West Brom losing the first leg of a play-off semi-final came against Swansea City in the third-tier play-offs in 1992-93 (1-2), progressing 3-2 on aggregate courtesy on a 2-0 victory in the second leg at the Hawthorns.