Hoffenheim vs Mainz 05 tips

Julian Nagelsmann’s men are unbeaten in nine – the longest such run in the German top flight – but draws in each of their last five – albeit over a tricky run of fixtures – has seen them drop out of the top six.
Hoffenheim and Mainz have each scored one goal or fewer in four of their last five competitive outings (D4, L1) and their season-long stats also favour this trend – under 3.5 goals have been scored in 75% of Hoffenheim’s home and 57% of Mainz’s away matches this term.
Only Schalke (16) and Wolfsburg (17) have seen fewer goals in their away matches this season than Mainz (18), and going off expected goals (xG – 19) we can see that this isn’t down to luck either. From the same stats we can actually see that the 05ers are even over-performing on the road, and if xG was used to determine their results and represent away form, they would have the second-worst travelling record in the Bundesliga.