On the face of it, Hamburg are struggling; they’re without a win in two and have dropped off their lofty perch. That said, their performances haven’t exactly been terrible, so we shouldn’t overreact to recent goings on. Monday’s hosts couldn’t take anything from their game against Regensburg last time out, but they were easily the better side and were thus unlucky to lose. The fact that they recorded 2.35 expected goals for and ended the game with a+0.55 expected goal difference tells us that they really shouldn’t have gone home empty handed. What’s more, when they faced Heidenheim prior to that, Wolf’s men created 2.41 expected goals for and conceded just 0.74, so it’s easy to say that they were desperately unfortunate not to come out on top. Results haven’t gone their way over the last few weeks but Die Rothosen will take confidence from the fact that they’ve played reasonably well.
In addition to some decent efforts despite results going against them, Hamburg have been very tough to beat at this venue. Monday’s hosts have lost just twice at home this season and are now without defeat at Volksparkstadion since September. They’ve since kept five clean sheets out of seven and have conceded more than once on just one occasion during that time. Moreover, they’ve conceded an average of just 0.98 expected goals since their last defeat on home soil, which suggests that they’ve not exactly been giving up plenty of chances. At the other end, they’ve averaged 1.43 expected goals for since their last home defeat.
While Hamburg have seemingly found it easy to avoid defeat at home in recent times, Furth have found it very, very tough to get their heads in front on the road. Monday’s visitors are now without a win in seven away matches, five of which they’ve lost. During that time, they’ve failed to find the net on six occasions.
Scoring goals is becoming a real problem for Furth on the road. They’ve found the back of the net in just six of their last seven travelling matches, while they’ve averaged a rather dismal 0.67 expected goals for during that time, so we can’t exactly say that they’ve been unlucky to find the net on so few occasions.
Not only have the visitors struggled to get going offensively on the road, but they’ve also done little to prevent their opponents from doing well in that respect. Furth come into this match having kept just two clean sheets in their last ten on the road, while they’ve shipping an average of 1.56 expected goals, which suggests that they’ve consistently conceded way more than they’ve created.
This is a game between a Bundesliga side and a 2.Bundesliga side, but punter shouldn’t expected to see a big disparity in quality, especially not one that favours the visitors. In truth. Hamburg, who currently top the second division, are as good as a weak top-flight team, while Nurnberg are no better than a top-half second-tier team.
On their own patch, Hamburg are now unbeaten in six. They’ve not been the most prolific scorers during that time, scoring just six goals, though they should be aided by Nurnberg’s rather open back-line, while they’ve been creating plenty of chances. Last time out at this venue, Wolf’s side scored twice and clocked a very respectable 2.19 expected goals for, a repeat of which would almost certainly do some damage on home soil.
However, while Hamburg have looked useful at home, their defensive efforts haven’t been overly impressive of late. They’ve been breached by both Sandhausen ad Union Berlin at this venue recently, while the fact that they’re conceding an average of 1.3 goals per home match suggests that they’re not infallible from a defensive point of view.
Nurnberg have floundered in the Bundesliga this season, especially from a defensive point of view, but some of their attacking efforts away against decent sides suggests that they can get competitive on Tuesday evening. The visitors recently scored in defeat away against Mainz, while they’ve also notched away against Augsburg, Schalke and Werder Bremen this season. They’ve not won any of those game and have looked massively suspect at the back, but the fact that they’ve offered something going forward is positive.
The problem for the visitors is that they have arguably the most leaky defence in all of Germany at present. Nurnberg have conceded a staggering average of 3.22 goals on the road, while they’ve conceded at least twice in each of their last seven on the road. Shipping goals against top sides such as Bayern is excusable, though doing so against bottom-half side sides such as Schalke, Augsburg and Mainz is anything but.
Given the visitors’ defensive woes, this looks like a good opportunity for the hosts. At the prices, the bet that stands out is ‘Hamburg to Win & Both Teams to Score’. Against slightly lesser opposition, Nurnberg, who have scored against several of the weaker Bundesliga outfits, can get competitive, but their defensive efforts against even the weaker top-tier sides suggest that they’ll once again come up short at the back.
St. Pauli have lost just twice at home this season, while they’re now unbeaten in four at Millerntor-Stadion. Overall, Markus Kauczinski’s men have done a pleasing job of creating more than they’ve given away at home; they’ve averaged 1.59 expected goals for and have surrendered an average of 1.24 expected goals. Moreover, they’ve scored twice on average per home match and have conceded 1.24 at the other end. Such numbers tell us that they’ve probably been lucky to score quite as many as they have, but they also tell us that St. Pauli are reasonably useful.
7 wins from 7 games for the new manager and no reason to see why that won't be 8.. Season in the Premier League (England), Manchester United FC stats show they are performing Good overall, currently placing them at 6/20 in the Premier League Table, winning 57% of matches. On average Manchester United score 2 goals and concede 1.43 goals per match. 78% of this Manchester United's matches end with both teams scoring and their average total goals per match is 3.43.
Plymouth have started to win games of late, though it’s easy to feel that they’ve been a tad fortunate. For example, against Coventry at the weekend, the Pilgrims came out of the game with an expected goal difference of -0.69. It would be wrong to say that they absolutely deserved to lose, as they battled hard and showed great determination, though in terms of chances created, it’s fair to say that their win was a fortunate one.
Fortunately, Plymouth have generally done a good job of creating more than their opponents on home soil, even if they do give plenty away in the defensive third. Derek Adams’ men have bettered their opponents in six of their last seven matches at Home Park. During that time, they’ve averaged a pleasing 2.22 expected goals for during that time, though they’ve given up an average of 1.41 at the other end. The fact that they can certainly create more than their opponents is positive, but they’re no doubt still leaving themselves a tad too exposed as far as Adams is concerned.
When it comes to being useful going forward and not so useful at the back, Walsall fit the bill too. Tuesday’s visitors come here of the back of a rare clean sheet after beating Gillingham by three goals to nil at the weekend, which will have allowed confidence levels to rise, though they don’t often keep their opponents out on the road. The visitors had conceded nine in four away matches prior to Saturday’s win, while they’re currently surrendering an average of 1.66 expected goals on their travels, which certainly doesn’t scream defensive solidity.
Given that both teams are clearly capable in the final third and yet somewhat weak at the back, over 2.5 goals looks a tad overpriced. As there’s been an average of 3.38 expected goals in Plymouth’s home matches, as well as 3.05 in Walsall’s travelling games, backing the goals to arrive at Home Park on Tuesday evening is the way to go.
When the draw was made, the South Koreans probably fancied themselves to emerge from Group C with minimal fuss, though China have so far led the way and currently sit top thanks to their superior goal difference. South Korea must win this match if they’re to advance as group winners.
Given that they’re one of the most prestigious nations at this tournament (in footballing terms), South Korea were expected to make light work of reaching the knockout rounds, though the way in which they won their opening two games was far from impressive. A 1-0 win was all they could manage against the Philippines on match-day one, while they could only score a single goal when defeating Kyrgyzstan last time out. Unsurprisingly, Paulo Bento’s men dominated against both Philippines and Kyrgyzstan, while they did create a reasonable amount of scoring opportunities, though their end-product was lacking. The boss will be hoping that the addition of star player Son Heung-min, who has now joined up with the squad, will help in that respect.
Against Kyrgyzstan on match-day one, South Korea did create plenty, as they clocked a useful expected-goals for figure of 2.62, though they didn’t look overly sharp at the back. On that occasion, they gave up a few chances, as the fact that they ended the game having conceded 1.61 expected goals suggests. A better side than Kyrgyzstan would’ve made them pay. With marksman Wu Lei in their ranks, China have shown that they can score goals, so Bento’s men will need to sharpen up at the back.
From a creativity point of view, China, despite scoring three more goals than Wednesday’s opponents, haven’t quite offered as much as South Korea. The Chinese are currently averaging 1.49 expected goals for, while Korea are averaging 2.26. Such numbers tell us that Korea have more about them offensively, though it is the Dragons who’ve made lighter work of getting the ball in the net. At the other end of the pitch, China have looked the better side. In terms of opportunities, against Kyrgyzstan, Marcello Lippi’s men conceded less than South Korea, who shipped 1.61 expected goals compared to just 0.82 conceded by the Chinese. What’s more, China gave up just 0.05 against Philippines, who mustered 0.46 against South Korea.
From what we’ve seen so far, it’s fair to say that South Korea are a better side than China in possession, while they seem to be that bit more creative. However, they’ve looked more open at the back and have not exactly made light work of making their dominance pay. On this basis, it’s easy to feel that the visitors have been slightly underestimated in the early betting.
Valencia’s poor run of form continued at the weekend, as they failed to overcome Valladolid in front of a home crowd. Marcelino’ men have gone three games without a win, while they’ve won just one of their last five. This home match against second division opposition presents the hosts with the perfect opportunity to bounce back, but they’ll have to do better than they did when losing in the reverse fixture just a week ago.
The Bats do come into this fixture having lost the first leg, but their defeat was a narrow one, so there’s no need to panic just yet. What’s more, although they did taste defeat at El Molinón, their performance was far from poor, especially from an offensive point of view. In fact, had Marcelino’s men had their shooting boots on, then they would be coming into this second leg with a lead, as they ended last week’s game with an expected goals supremacy of +1.48. They also accumulated both more shots and shots on target than Gijon in the first leg.
Considering that they created plenty last week, Valencia will be disappointed not be leading at the half-way stage, but they will also be uplifted by the fact that they were able to create so much on the road. Such creativity should fill the hosts with confidence ahead of this match in front of a home crowd, where they have played well of late, especially from a forward point of view.
Valencia are now unbeaten in four at home, while their attacking efforts during that time have been eye-catching. Tuesday’s hosts have scored seven goals in their last four at Mestalla, while creating scoring opportunities has seemingly come easy to them during that time, as they’ve posted expected goals for figures of 1.94, 2.84, 1.91 and 2.28.
While Valencia have looked useful from an offensive point of view at home of late, Gijon have struggled to get going on their travels. Tuesday’s visitors have scored just a single goal in their last three away matches in the second division, while their last two efforts have been particularly disappointing, as is the fact that they’re currently averaging just 0.85 expected goals for away from home.
Marcelino’s men proved that they can create plenty of chances against this Gijon back-line and if they can just steady themselves when it comes to getting the ball in the net, then they’ll score plenty of goals on Tuesday evening. Having clocked an impressive 2.89 expected goals for in the reverse fixture, Valencia are backed to do some real damage in this second leg, and punters can profit by getting on Valencia to Score Over 2.5 Goals.
Roma have been given a cushy draw for the last 16 of the Coppa Italia, as they welcome third-tier opposition on Monday night. The club are aiming to end their run without silverware, as it’s coming up on 11 years since their last trophy. The club’s best chance comes in the Coppa Italia, which could be the perfect competition for a side like the Giallorossi. They’ve got some problems with consistency in the league, which has left them down in sixth. However, Eusebio Di Francesco’s side have impressed in Europe.
The visitors aren’t quite Torino, they’re a side who are fifth in the Italian third tier, a division which is split into three groups of 20 sides each. It’s not a huge endorsement of their ability, so it’s no surprise that the visitors are massive underdogs ahead of this visit to the capital. They’re still a long way from promotion to the second tier, so stepping up to eliminate a Champions League side is going to take a herculean effort from the visitors.
Roma should be expected to win easily, given that they’ve averaged 2.67 goals per game at home to Serie A sides this season. They’ve racked up goals against top European teams here in the last 12 months, so we expect them to stroll past the visitors. However, the hosts do have an issue with their defence, which has been far too leaky so far. They have conceded 1.56 goals per game at home, and the visitors have recently troubled Serie A opposition.
Virtus Entella won a penalty shoot-out after a 3-3 draw with Genoa in the last round. That shows their issues at the back, but they can also score goals against sides from the top flight. We can see them scoring in this trip, but with Roma scoring close to three goals per game against top tier sides, I don’t see this as much of a contest. As a result, over 3.5 goals is our tip for what should be an entertaining tie on Monday night.
With eight wins in their 14 away matches this season, it is not easy to tell whether Real Madrid have enjoyed more away from home in a campaign that has been below par in very many standards for the European champions. They have struggled against formidable sides when playing away from home and it will definitely not be easy against Real Betis, who are unbeaten in eight home matches and have lost just two of their 14 at home this season. Betis have not conceded at home in five of their last six matches while they have scored in seven of the last eight at home, and only failed to score in three of the 14 home games. Both sides have picked three wins in the last five La Liga matches and also lost in their last league outings and will be keen on returning to winning ways. Notably, their recent matches have not been high scoring; in the last five La Liga games, Betis matches have produced over 2.5 goals just twice while Real Madrid’s have seen the tally in just one. Though four of the last six meetings have produced over 2.5 goals, we expect the sides to be more cautious going to this game. In 44 meetings previously, Real Madrid have picked 23 wins and Betis eight.
The hosts are currently operating at the level below Valencia, while they didn’t exactly build momentum at the weekend, but they aren’t likely to show any fear in front of their own fans on Tuesday. José Alberto López Menéndez’s men knocked out top-flight Eibar in the last round, while they’ve been tough to beat in their own division for some time.
Gijon have lost just one of their last six league matches, during which time they’ve been reasonably useful at the back. Prior to their defeat at the weekend, where they created more than their opponents, Tuesday’s hosts had kept three clean sheets on the spin. In addition, their underlying numbers at home are pleasing. Gijon are averaging 1.55 expected goals for at home, while they’re conceding just 1.01 at the other end.
What’s more, Menéndez’s side should take plenty of confidence from the fact that they dominated a Primera side at this venue in the last round. When beating Eibar by two goals to nil back in November, Gijon showed themselves to be useful going forward, while they were very disciplined defensively, as they gave up just 0.29 expected goals.
In addition to a rather lacklustre performance against Ebro in the previous round, Valencia haven’t exactly flourished away from home in La Liga this season. Marcelino’s men have won just two of their nine away games during the current campaign, while they’re currently without a win in three on the road. They’re averaging 1.2 expected goals on their travels and are shipping an average of 1.38.
Total Under
Julian Nagelsmann’s men are unbeaten in nine – the longest such run in the German top flight – but draws in each of their last five – albeit over a tricky run of fixtures – has seen them drop out of the top six.
Hoffenheim and Mainz have each scored one goal or fewer in four of their last five competitive outings (D4, L1) and their season-long stats also favour this trend – under 3.5 goals have been scored in 75% of Hoffenheim’s home and 57% of Mainz’s away matches this term.
Only Schalke (16) and Wolfsburg (17) have seen fewer goals in their away matches this season than Mainz (18), and going off expected goals (xG – 19) we can see that this isn’t down to luck either. From the same stats we can actually see that the 05ers are even over-performing on the road, and if xG was used to determine their results and represent away form, they would have the second-worst travelling record in the Bundesliga.
The visitors have averaged less than a goal per game on the road this season, failing to score in 45% of their away trips in the Championship. Hull are stepping up their defensive form, but they’ve averaged just 0.8 goals per game at home this season, which suggests this will be a close game. Swansea have one of the league’s best defences, conceding just 0.91 goals per game on the road, with under 2.5 goals landing in over half of their games. Given that under 2.5 has come in 82% of Hull’s home matches, it seems really well priced here.
It’s been an excellent campaign for Koln, who’re looking to make a swift return to the Bundesliga, though with Hamburg showing few signs of slowing down in front of them, it is important that Die Geißböcke keep winning. A win on Monday night would see Markus Anfang’s men move to just a point behind the league leaders.
Koln have gone about their business in pleasing fashion of late, as they’ve won each of their last four.
Home is where the heart is for Koln. On their own patch, Anfang’s men have been irresistible of late. They pummelled Dresden by eight goals to one at this venue not that long ago, while they brushed aside Furth in their most recent match at RheinEnergieStadion, scoring four goals in the process. No team in 2. Bundesliga have scored more goals in front of their own fans than Koln, who’ve notched an impressive 23 in eight home games.
Furthermore, the hosts are posting some very encouraging underlying numbers, which simply serve to support the notion that they’re strong on their own patch. At home, Koln are averaging a massive 2.43 expected goals for. This tells us that creativity is the least of their worries, while they’re only shipping 1.2 at the other end, which suggests that their attacking efforts outweigh what they surrender at the back by a considerable margin.
Magdeburg haven’t done too badly this season, but they’ve struggled to be at their best on the road, as they’re yet to collect three points on their travels.
If we look at their underlying numbers, then it’s easy to feel that Magdeburg have been unlucky to concede so many goals. They’re surrendering an average of 1.21 expected goals on the road, an average that if maintained should see them ship a few less over time, though they’re not particularly menacing at the other end, as they’re averaging just 1.33. That said, the visitors will fancy themselves to make offensive headway on this occasion, as Koln have kept just a single clean sheet at home this season.
As has often been the case, Koln have more than enough about them to overcome their visitors on attacking strength alone.
Even against the less forceful attacking sides, Monday’s hosts, who’ve kept just one clean sheet at RheinEnergieStadion, have often been caught out, especially on the break, which is certainly a tactic that Magdeburg will use. With the visitors scoring in five out of seven on the road, and the hosts conceding in all but one of their home games this season, coupled with the fact that Koln have a much superior attack, the bet that stands out at the prices is Koln to win & total >2.5.
Very difficult to say anything negative about the way Portsmouth have played recently. Each of their last three league performances have caught the eye for all the right reasons. Against Scunthorpe, Southend and Walsall, Pompey have looked a class above. During that time, they’ve scored six goals, have conceded just one, while they’ve posted an impressive 7.38 expected goals for, which tells us that they have no problem ***oever when it comes to creating chances. What’s more, the fact that they’ve surrendered just 2.19 expected goals in those three games also tells us that they’re good at preventing their opponents from creating too much.
While Charlton are giving up an average of 1.58 expected goals on the road (and an average of 1.5 goals), Portsmouth are averaging an eye-catching 2.06 expected goals for at Fratton Park, so it’s easy to make a case for Portsmouth to score over 1.5 goals at the prices.
The last couple of performances of Jahn have been pleasing; they were unlucky not to beat Duisburg when drawing last time out. At the very least, the fact that they emerged from the game with an expected goal difference of +1.43 tells us that they were far better than their opponents in terms of creating scoring opportunities. Prior to that, they battled hard to secure victory away against Heidenheim.
In front of their own fans, Regensburg have looked like a useful side going forward, but they’ve found it tough to keep things tight at the back. Monday’s hosts come into this fixture having conceded at least once in each of their last three at Continental Arena, while they’ve kept just a single clean sheet in their last ten on home soil. Add in the fact that they’re averaging 1.49 expected-goals against and have recently surrendered numbers of 1.19, 2.35, 1.93, 1.19 and 2.27 and it’s easy to conclude that they’re far from astute defensively. Fortunately, they’re averaging 1.58 expected goals for at home, so all is not lost.