Portsmouth - Charlton Athletic - Tips by users and experts on football, 11 December 2018: England. League One

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Portsmouth Win • 1.88

Skipping the last round of the Champions League is boring. Let's go to the basement of English football, England Cup, Ligue One, this is a real men's football.
As each week passes, Portsmouth look more like automatic promotion contenders. Perhaps an obvious point to make given that they’re top of the table, but they could easily be labouring and thus maintaining their position somewhat fortuitously.
In fairness, if the league table is to be believed, Charlton are a better side than any of Portsmouth’s recent opponents, though that’s not likely to matter much to Kenny Jackett’s men, who continue to see off all-comers.

Portsmouth Total Over 1.5 • 1.952

Very difficult to say anything negative about the way Portsmouth have played recently. Each of their last three league performances have caught the eye for all the right reasons. Against Scunthorpe, Southend and Walsall, Pompey have looked a class above. During that time, they’ve scored six goals, have conceded just one, while they’ve posted an impressive 7.38 expected goals for, which tells us that they have no problem ***oever when it comes to creating chances. What’s more, the fact that they’ve surrendered just 2.19 expected goals in those three games also tells us that they’re good at preventing their opponents from creating too much.
While Charlton are giving up an average of 1.58 expected goals on the road (and an average of 1.5 goals), Portsmouth are averaging an eye-catching 2.06 expected goals for at Fratton Park, so it’s easy to make a case for Portsmouth to score over 1.5 goals at the prices.

Portsmouth Total Over 1.5 • 1.952

Pompey’s fine form continued at the weekend, as they cruised to victory over Southend in front of an expectant Fratton Park crowd. Having played well on route to victory at the weekend, Kenny Jackett’s men ought to be feeling confident ahead of a match against a Charlton side that travel south off the back of tasting defeat at the weekend.

As each week passes, Portsmouth look more like automatic promotion contenders. Perhaps an obvious point to make given that they’re top of the table, but they could easily be labouring and thus maintaining their position somewhat fortuitously, but that’s not the case. Jackett’s men continue to get on the front foot, as we saw when they brushed aside Southend on Saturday.

In truth, it’s very difficult to say anything negative about the way Portsmouth have played recently. Each of their last three league performances have caught the eye for all the right reasons. Against Scunthorpe, Southend and Walsall, Pompey have looked a class above. During that time, they’ve scored six goals, have conceded just one, while they’ve posted an impressive 7.38 expected goals for, which tells us that they have no problem ***oever when it comes to creating chances. What’s more, the fact that they’ve surrendered just 2.19 expected goals in those three games also tells us that they’re good at preventing their opponents from creating too much.

In fairness, if the league table is to be believed, Charlton are a better side than any of Portsmouth’s recent opponents, though that’s not likely to matter much to Kenny Jackett’s men, who continue to see off all-comers.

Charlton may be a better team than Southend, Scunthorpe or Walsall, but they’ve not exactly played like a top side on their travels. Lee Bowyer’s men were beaten away at the weekend, losing by two goals to one at Blackpool, while they’ve won just two of their last six on the road.

Aside from results, the Addicks have delivered some unflattering underlying numbers when playing away from home. Charlton may have scored an average of 1.6 goals on the road, but they’re averaging just 1.39 expected goals for, which tells us that they’re not threatening as much as we may think based on the number of goals scored. Furthermore, they’re giving up 1.58 expected goals on average at the other end. Such numbers suggest that the Addicks are finding it tough to create more than they’re giving away when playing on the road, as was the case at Bloomfield Road on Saturday. This doesn’t bode well ahead of a match against a menacing Pompey outfit.

While Charlton are giving up an average of 1.58 expected goals on the road (and an average of 1.5 goals), Portsmouth are averaging an eye-catching 2.06 expected goals for at Fratton Park, so it’s easy to make a case for ‘Portsmouth to Score Over 1.5 Goals’ at the prices. Unless they improve on what they’ve done defensively in recent away matches and unless Pompey are considerably below the level they’ve been at of late, then the visitors will find it tough to keep the rampant league leaders at bay.