Atletico Madrid
Line-up
- 13J. Oblak
- 21Lucas Hernández
- 15S. Savić
- 4S. Arias
- 8Saúl
- 11T. Lemar
- 14Rodri
- 5Partey, Thomas
- 10Á. Correa
- 7Antoine Griezmann
- 9N. Kalinić
- 24José Giménez
- 35Javi Montero
- 23Vitolo
Subs
- 1Antonio Adán
- 18Gelson Martins
- 32Borja Garcés
- 47Joaquín Muñoz
Alaves
Line-up
- 1Fernando Pacheco
- 3Rubén Duarte
- 15Ximo Navarro
- 5Víctor Laguardia
- 21Martín Aguirregabiria
- 22Mubarak Wakaso
- 8Tomás Pina
- 19Manu García
- 23Jony
- 11Ibai Gómez
- 12J. Calleri
- 14Burgui
- 18Borja Bastón
- 7Sobrino, Ruben
Subs
- 13Sivera
- 6Guillermo Maripán
- 20D. Brašanac
- 10J. Guidetti
14 games into the season, Alaves surprisingly remain in the top four and they’d leapfrog Atletico Madrid into 3rd place.
Alaves are still huge underdogs. They’ve done brilliantly so far but their success has largely come via nicking games here and there rather than outclassing opponents. They’ve created just 1.07 expected goals this term to their opponents’ 1.41. However in terms of actual goals, they’ve scored 1.35 to their opponents’ 1.07 which suggests they’ve ridden their luck at times.
Atletico Madrid are another team to have scored more and conceded less than the respective expected goals stats. However they’ve been doing that kind of thing for so long now, that it’s impossible to simply attribute that to good fortune. They have some defensive injury concerns but they have enough strength in depth to keep Alaves quiet here. Atletico certainly have enough quality to force the breakthrough eventually and with an average of 2.43 points per home game, there’s not much wrong with their form at the Wanda, where they’ve won 8 of their last 9 in all competitions. This fixture is usually low-scoring, with all of the last 10 meetings producing under 2.5 goals and backing Atletico Madrid and under 2.5 goals looks good here.