Bradford City - Peterborough United - Tips by users and experts on football, 11 December 2018: England. FA Cup

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Bradford City Total Over 1.5 • 2.48

After fighting hard to force this replay by drawing 2-2 at ABAX Stadium, Bradford went into the weekend hoping for a win over relegation rivals Plymouth, but they were unable to get their heads in front, despite leading three times in what was a six-goal thriller. Their attacking efforts have certainly improved in recent weeks, so the Bantams will now be hoping to showcase some defensive strength and thus see off the challenge of play-off chaser Peterborough.

Bradford may be a side lingering at the bottom of the table, but they’ve avoided defeat not once but twice away against Peterborough already this season, so they may just come into this home match feeling confident.

When the teams met in the initial tie, the Bantams started well, but it was Peterborough who took a 2-0 lead in half-time and it was they who looked most likely to go on and find the net for most of the second period. However, Bradford picked themselves up off the canvas and delivered a spirit last 15 minutes or so, scoring twice late on to force the replay, which in the end was probably deserved.

The 2-2 at ABAX less than a fortnight ago was the second time that David Hopkin’s men have denied Peterborough away from home this season, so there’s certainly reason for them to be feeling optimistic ahead of this match. That said, they will need to defend much better than they did at the weekend if they’re to progress.

Fortunately for the hosts, as good as Peterborough can be going forward, they’re prone to some poor defending of their own, which bodes well given that the Bantams have certainly improved in the final third of late. The visitors have kept just one clean sheet in their last six league matches, while they’ve twice been breached by Bradford of late. Furthermore, from a defensive point of view, there’s a suspicion that Posh have been overperforming a tad at the back. They’re giving up an average of 1.24 goals in League One this season, but the fact that they’ve shipped an average of 1.63 expected goals tell us that they’re not as good at keeping their opponents quiet as the bare stats suggest.

Given Bradford’s recent upturn in attacking fortunes, coupled with the fact that Peterborough are not the toughest team to get at, the bet that stands out at the prices is ‘Bradford to Score Over 1.5 Goals’. After all, the Bantams have delivered some of the best attacking performances when facing League One’s better teams on home soil. They clocked 1.7 expected goals against Portsmouth at this venue, while they posted a very respectable 1.93 against Sunderland. A repeat of either of those efforts would likely see them hurt a visiting rear-guard that has rarely been able to keep things tight.