Sunderland
Line-up
- 1Jon McLaughlin
- 3B. Oviedo
- 15Baldwin, Jack
- 12Flanagan, Tom
- 13O'Nien, Luke
- 27M. Power
- 8D. McGeouch
- 10G. Honeyman
- 14D. Watmore
- 7Maguire, Chris
- 17J. Sinclair
- 37B. Mumba
- 6L. Cattermole
- 20Maja, Josh
Subs
- 25R. Ruiter
- 16R. James
- 4G. Loovens
- 5Ozturk, Alim
Walsall
Line-up
- 1Roberts, Liam
- 5Guthrie, Jon
- 34R. Martin
- 6Devlin, Nicky
- 3Leahy, Luke
- 30Isaiah Osbourne
- 8Morris, Kieron
- 15L. Kinsella
- 11J. Ginnelly
- 16Ferrier, Morgan
- 29Gordon, Josh
Subs
- 13Dunn, Chris
- 2Edwards, Joe
- 20C. Johnson
- 32Bates, Alfie
- 17Maziar Kouhyar
- 31C. Ronan
- 26D. Parker
When the teams met in the initial tie, there wasn’t much between them. Sunderland enjoyed moments of promise and they took the lead after just 20 minutes. However, Jack Ross’ men failed to kick forward and get the job done. After a period of pressure during the second 45, Walsall equalised and from then on out, it was the Saddlers who looked the more likely to go on and win it.
After an encouraging display in the reverse fixture, Dean Keates’ men ought to travel north feeling upbeat, though facing Sunderland away from home demands more.
Despite being in a very strong position in League One, Sunderland haven’t always played as well as you might expect a title-challenger to during the current campaign, though their efforts on home soil have been pleasing. Jack Ross’ men remain unbeaten at home this season, and even though they’ve only won five out of nine in front of their own fans, their performances have been useful.
That said, it’s not difficult to feel that Sunderland have been slightly fortunate at both ends of the pitch. With the likes of Josh Maja, Aiden McGeady and Lynden Gooch in their ranks, the Black Cats have plenty of quality going forward, though the fact that they’re averaging 1.7 expected goals for at home, which is by no means poor, tells us that they’ve perhaps not been as menacing as their average of 2.33 goals suggests.
Moreover, Ross’ men haven’t been overly strong at the back. They’re by no means poor when it comes to defending at home, though they’ve shut they’re opponents out in just two of their nine matches at Stadium of Light, while they’ve given up an average of 1.23 expected goals. Again, such a number is far from terrible, but it does suggest that they can be got at, so there’s certainly hope for the visitors.
On their travels, Walsall have struggled of late; they’re without a win in four on the road, while they’ve also failed to score in each of their last four travelling matches. However, they haven’t exactly been well treated by the fixture list during that time. Portsmouth, Luton, Fleetwood and Southend are some of the toughest places to go, so too much shouldn’t be read into that form. Sunderland aren’t necessarily easy to face, but having done so twice already this campaign, Walsall know that they can get at the Black Cats.
If we look at the underlying numbers for Walsall on the road then we can see that they’re OK going forward. They’re averaging 1.41 expected goals for, while some of their attacking efforts, such as when they both scored and recorded 1.82 expected goals for away against promotion-chasers Barnsley, have been pleasing. The problem has usually been at the other end. Keates’ men have struggled to keep things tight at the back, as they’ve shipped a whopping 2.15 expected goals, which essentially means that teams are finding it easy to carve out opportunities against the Saddlers.
Given the numbers, ‘Both Teams to Score’ makes plenty of appeal at the prices, while ‘Sunderland to Win & Over 2.5 Goals’ appears to also be a viable option. Both have found it tough to keep clean sheets in their respective home and away games, though it must be said that the visitors have looked considerably weaker at the back, as the numbers show, while the hosts offer more going forward.