1
Spain
21
2
France
22
3
England
20
4
Turkey
17
5
Albania
15
6
Belgium
20
7
Hungary
18
8
Denmark
22
9
Romania
22
10
Portugal
30
11
Scotland
17
12
Netherlands
18
13
Italy
14
14
Croatia
16
15
Czechia
15
16
Austria
19
17
Serbia
14
18
Slovenia
22
19
Switzerland
17
20
Slovakia
22
21
Norway
11
22
Greece
13
23
Ukraine
14
24
Wales
12
25
Poland
11
26
Sweden
10
27
Montenegro
11
28
Finland
18
29
Israel
15
30
Luxembourg
17
31
Georgia
8
32
Republic of Ireland
6
33
FYR Macedonia
8
34
Armenia
8
35
Moldova
10
36
Azerbaijan
7
37
Lithuania
6
38
Kazakhstan
18
39
Belarus
12
40
Iceland
10
41
Cyprus
0
42
Gibraltar
0
43
Malta
0
44
Latvia
3
45
Faroe Islands
2
46
Estonia
1
47
Bulgaria
4
48
Northern Ireland
9
49
Kosovo
11
50
Bosnia and Herzegovina
9
51
San Marino
0
52
Andorra
2
53
Liechtenstein
0
At home during the Nations League, Bulgaria averaged a measly 0.38 expected goals for, though they only conceded 0.64. Similarly, on their travels in that competition, Kosovo averaged 0.97 expected goals for, while they surrendered an average of just 0.45. Add in the fact that the pair conceded a combined average of just 0.83 goals and ‘Under 1.5 Goals’ is hard to avoid.
There probably aren’t occasions where ‘Under 1.5 Goals’ represents value at the current odds, though this game appears to break the mould in that respect. All things considered, supporting the goals to stay away in Levski is the best option.