Newport County - Wrexham - Tips by users and experts on football, 11 December 2018: England. FA Cup

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Newport County Win And Total Under 3.5 Yes • 2.54

Newport’s poor run continued at the weekend, as they were defeated 2-1 by Swindon on the road. That’s now three matches without a win for Michael Flynn’s men, who’ve won just one of their last five. The Exiles remain a play-off candidate in League Two, though they need to regain the winning thread sooner rather than later. A win over non-league Wrexham on Tuesday night can give the Welsh side a much-needed pick-up ahead of their return to League Two action on Saturday.

When the teams met in the initial tie, it was Wrexham who were just about the better side. Neither team looked amazingly astute in the final third, though it was the National League side that created the better opportunities, while they also did a better job of keeping their opponents quiet.

Considering that they had the better of the game at the Racecourse, Wrexham will have been disappointed not to get the win. They’ll know that they can compete against this Newport side, but they’ll also know that the League Two side are likely to offer lots more on their own patch.

Newport weren’t great in the reverse fixture, though they have been useful on their own patch this season. Flynn’s men have lost just once at home during the current campaign, while they’ve scored a pleasing 20 goals in ten matches at Rodney Parade. The fact that they’re averaging 1.53 expected goals tells us that they’re probably over-performing in terms of goals scored, but it also tells us that they’re no slouches in the final third.

At the other end, Newport have given less away than the bare figures suggest. They have shipped 1.6 goals on average, keeping just three clean sheets, but they’ve given up 1.03 expected goals. If they can maintain the latter of those two averages, then the Exiles should start to see less goals go in against them at Rodney Parade.

Unlike Newport at home, Wrexham have struggled to score goals on their travels this season. The visitors started the season scoring six in three on the road, but they’ve since scored just five in eight travelling matches in the National League. Such stats aren’t overly encouraging, nor is the fact that they’re averaging just 0.88 expected goals for, which suggests that they’re finding it tough to carve out regular scoring opportunities.

Newport’s performance in the initial fixture wasn’t overly pleasing, but the visitors’ attacking struggles on their travels are hard to ignore. If Newport can match one of their better home performances then they ought to have enough about them to get the job done, though punters shouldn’t expect the hosts to run away with this one. For all they’ve struggled offensively, Wrexham have given little away on their travels in the National League this season.

At the prices, ‘Newport to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’ catches the eye. With an average expected goal difference of +0.53 at home, compared to Wrexham’s of -0.22 on the road, the hosts can edge out their visitors.