Benfica vs Porto tips

We're down to the semi-finals of the Portuguese League Cup as Benfica host Porto. This is a match between the top two teams in the Primeira League with leaders Porto being the visitors in this one-leg last four tie. Benfica won Group A of this tournament finishing two points clear of Aves. They have only lost one of their last 13 games in all competitions and won four in a row since losing away to Portimonense. This game takes place on Braga's home ground where the final will also be held on January 26.
Porto lead the Primeira League by five points and are unbeaten in 21 league games since a defeat by Benfica in October. Of those 21 games, 19 have been won over 90 minutes with a draw against Sporting and an extra time victory in the Portuguese Cup. Nine of the last 11 games between these two sides have seen under 2.5 goals scored. That includes a goalless draw in the Portuguese League Cup five years ago that went to penalties. The tip here is for under 2.5 goals to be scored.

One thing these two have in common is that they’re both better defensively on the road. Benfica have conceded 59% of their league goals so far at home, while 55% of Porto’s goals have been at the Dragao. They should set up with solid foundations for this clash in Braga, which further adds to our belief that this is going to be tight. Benfica have seen under 2.5 goals in 70% of their away league trips, while the same has landed in 67% of Porto’s away matches. That has picking out under 2.5 as my tip here, while I’m backing a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes.

The clash is being held on neutral ground in Braga, with the two giants aiming to boost their trophy cabinet. The Primeira Liga’s top two are desperate to edge this huge encounter, which has even more pressure given that it’s a semi-final.
Benfica are sitting five points adrift of Porto, and they’re heading for their fourth straight game away from the Estadio da Luz. They’re looking to move on from Rui Vitoria, who left the club earlier this month. Jose Mourinho has been linked with a move to the Lisbon giants, but many seem to believe that the job is one of the recent offers he has turned down. Given that the club need to go through a bit of renewal and transition, the former Porto boss might not be the best pick given their current issues,
The Eagles were dethroned by Porto at the top of the Primeira Liga last year. The Dragons have kept their great form from last season rolling, and they’re looking to turn that into more silverware. They’ve already lifted the title and the Super Cup in the last 12 months, while the recent signing of Pepe has strengthened a side who are looking good all over the pitch right now.
They have each picked up 1-0 wins in the last two meetings, while all of the last five clashes between them have seen fewer than three goals scored. In fact, they’ve scored just six times between them in those five head to head clashes, so expect a close encounter when these two sides battle for a place in the final.