Scoring goals is rarely a problem for the visitors, who’ve notched in six of their seven away games, averaging a respectable 1.43 goals for, though they do have plenty of problems keeping the ball out of the net when playing away from the comforts of home. Norrkoping have kept just two clean sheets on the road this season, while they’ve shipped nine goals in seven outings. What’s more, they’ve surrendered a rather alarming average of 1.89 expected goals for.
It’s been a relatively pleasing campaign for AIK, who currently sit 3rd. They do find themselves six points behind league leaders Malmo, though it remains early days. The fact that his side are unbeaten in six will please manager Rikard Norling, though he will be looking to close the gap at the top. Fortunately, this home match against Norrkoping presents the hosts with a gilt-edged opportunity to take another step in the right direction.
AIK’s relative success this season has been down to excellent form at home. On their travels, they’ve been a bit up and down, winning two, drawing two and losing two, though they’ve been very solid on their own patch, winning five, drawing one and losing none of their six games at Friends Arena.
From a betting point of view, it would be easy to side with the hosts, though they appear to represent little value. AIK are the most likely winners of this contest, but the price on offer at present suggests that their chances are slightly greater than all available evidence would suggest.
The bet that does stand out at the prices is ‘Over 2.5 Goals’. AIK are no strangers to scoring goals at home, having notched six in their last three at Friends Arena, but they’re up against a Norrkoping side that has been anything but shy in front of goal on the road. Given that the pair average a combined 2.93 goals for in their respective home and away games, coupled with the fact that there’s been an average of 3.12 expected goals in Norrkoping’s travelling games this season, backing the goals to arrive in no small number offers punters a slice of value.
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Not only have AIK simply got positive results at home, but they’ve performed very well at both ends of the pitch, scoring 14 goals and conceding only five. Only one team has scored more home goals than AIK this season. In addition, AIK’s underlying numbers have been respectable at home. Having posted an average of 1.33 expected goals for, they’ve not been amazing going forward, but they’ve done a good job of limiting their opponents, as they’ve surrendered an average of 1.11. What’s more, each of their last two efforts at this venue, where they created 1.74 and 1.69 expected goals for (and conceded 0.53 and 1.1) are encouraging.
While the hosts have been strong at home, Norrkoping have found wins hard to come by on their travels, as they’ve emerged victorious from just two of their seven away matches. However, they’ve only lost one of those seven and are now unbeaten in six on the road, so they’re not the easiest side to get the better of.